Saturday, 27 August 2011
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Pascal's Wager: What it Tells Us About Ourselves
Imagine you are making your way into the grocery store. As you enter, an employee stops you and says, "Excuse me, there may be a bomb in the building." What would you do? Most likely, you wouldn't enter. I know I wouldn't. Although I don't know for certain if there's a bomb in the building, I wouldn't take the risk. I wouldn't risk my own life, or possibly the lives of my child/husband if they were with me on my trip. I think we can agree that you are indeed being very careless, at best, for entering the building knowing there's a 50/50 chance you could lose your life.
Of course, things aren't that simple when it comes to God*. Blaise Pascal — French philosopher, scientist, mathematician and probability theorist (1623-1662) — argues that if we don’t know whether God exists then we should play it safe rather than risk being sorry.
Here's how it works.
If you do believe in God, and God does exist: you get heaven
If you do believe in God, and God does not exist: you get nothing (death is the end)
If you don't believe in God, and God does exist: you get hell
If you don't believe in God, and God does not exist: you get nothing
As you can see, it is in your best interest to believe in God. After all, hell would kinda suck, right? So why are there atheists? Or agnostics? How could it possibly benefit them to take such a risk with their eternal destinies?
Although it seems pretty simple and straight-forward, there are plenty of objections to this argument. What critics are objecting to is Pascal's subsequent advice to an unbeliever who, having concluded that the only rational way to wager is in favor of God's existence, points out, reasonably enough, that this by no means makes him a believer. A belief based solely on prudential reasoning is not true belief after all. A God who is all-knowing will clearly see through this facade. If this type of "faith" can get you into heaven, then heaven will, undoubtedly, be filled with selfish people-people who don't necessarily want to worship God, but who wanted to save their tails from his wrath for all eternity.
Another objection is that people just can't do this. Meaning, there are plenty of nonbelievers who are scared of hell, but not scared enough to follow the Lord. They can't just look at this wager and say, "Hey this is right...well, I'm a Christian now!" Think about it. Have you ever met a Christian whose testimony was "Well I became a Christian when I realized that I didn't want to go to hell and thought I'd play it safe." I've heard hundreds of testimonies of how people came to Christ, and that's one I've never personally heard. Clearly, this reasoning would cause us to raise our eyebrows and seriously question the sincerity of this person's faith.
So, you may be thinking, didn't Pascal understand that? Is he as shallow as to think that people can just "believe" on a whim? Actually, he's on to something.
I have asked the following question to at least ten people who were not Christians: "If Jesus came down right now and asked you to follow him for the rest of your life, would you?" I got nine "no"s for an answer and one "maybe". That should tell us right there that, it's not that we don't believe because we're just not convinced. We don't believe because we don't want to. It's not an intellectual decision, but a moral one.
This wager should tell us a lot about ourselves. Pascal is quoted as saying, "Men despise religion. They hate it and are afraid it may be true." The fact that it would do nothing but benefit us...for eternity....to follow God, yet we don't....that should tell us about the genuineness of our beliefs (or lack thereof). We would rather stay how we are, in our risky state, than submit to God. There are plenty of Scripture verses to show that we are actually not in a morally neutral state. We cannot just, on a whim, choose good or evil. We are, by nature, slaves to sin (Romans 6:6). We have a free will but not a good will. We will always choose not to obey God, because we would rather go our own way. We would rather serve ourselves than our Creator, for no other reason than because it pleases us more to do things our way. Had Adam and Eve's scenario been replaced with you and me, we would've chosen the same thing. The only thing that can free us from our bondage to slavery is Christ's sacrifice and the regenerating power of the Holy Spirit. The only reason anyone is a Christian, including myself, is because God has chosen to lift the veil that blinds our eyes and recreate our heart in such a way that it simply cannot say no to him. We love Christ. We can't get enough of him. The sin we once loved, we now abandon, and the Christ we once ignored, we now embrace.
Read this carefully: Christianity has never been about being convinced of God's existence, or merely about "believing" he exists. NEWSFLASH: Satan believes in God! "You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that--and shudder" (James 2:19). But last time I checked, demons are not going to heaven. Just believing in God's existence isn't what gets people to heaven.
I don't look forward to heaven because there's going to be happiness, no more death, and peace. I ultimately look forward to heaven because I get Christ! I get to forever be with him and learn about him for the rest of eternity.
I think John Piper puts it best: ""Christ did not die to forgive sinners who go on treasuring anything above seeing and savoring God. And people who would be happy in heaven if Christ were not there, will not be there. The gospel is not a way to get people to heaven; it is a way to get people to God. It's a way of overcoming every obstacle to everlasting joy in God. If we don't want God above all things, we have not been converted by the gospel."
*For the sake of consistency and simplicity, we are assuming the existence of the Christian God for this argument
What are your thoughts on Pascal's Wager? Is it safer to assume there is a God? If it is, why are there people who don't believe?
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Comments (65)
Truce time. Am I to understand that if I do not believe in eternal torment that is where I will go? It's interesting that individual churches and pastors have so much power over content, that much is ignored, and when I touch the tip of the ice burg, I get the same stuff regurgitated to me over and over again. It's like a game I've been playing for 22 years. No one from a fundamentalist camp will ever touch universalist scripture and critique it, cause it's just so darn baaaaaaad.
@Pollypinks@xanga - I really hope you're right.
Since we all base our faith on the aspect of grace, then I fail to see the importance if the necessity of preaching hell to young children. When my son was but 8 years old, I was still a staunch mormon, having been raised that way. He had been having nightmares for nearly a week, but wouldn't tell me about them. Finally, he did. A supposed friend at school had been telling him his gramma was burning in hell since she was a dead mormon. It's this kind of stuff that I don't think Christ would approve of. Scaring the bejeepers out of young children, causing them to lose sleep, and to this day, he's 32, he still has vivid memories of this, and will have nothing to do with organized religion.
@Pollypinks@xanga - Hello Polly; Your son threw the baby out with the bathwater. Though Mormonism uses the same words that true Christians use, the definition of those words are totally in error. Jesus Christ IS NOT SATANS BROTHER, YOU AND I WILL NEVER BE A GOD, JESUS CHRIST DID NOT WRITE OF HIS VISIT TO AMERICA ON GOLD PLATES. This is a load of baloney. Please realize that the CHURCH is not Baptists, Presbyterians, Or Seventh Day Adventists, or Catholics, or Lutherans, or Calvinists, or Armenianists. THE CHURCH IS INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE WHO KNOW JESUS CHRIST AS THEIR LORD. Out of organized religion, all organized religion and UNORGANIZED religion, the CHURCH will rise. No one has a lock on relationship with God. The doctrine of how to know God and what He requires to know Him IS THE IMPORTANT DOCTRINE. Christians use box names to identify other brothers and sisters in the Lord. What I mean is, let us say I meet a Baptist; when I ask where he fellowships, he may say First Baptist of .................. In my mind I will think, "okay, he may know the Lord, let's find out. If I meet a Mormon, I think to myself, he probably doesn't know the Lord, but let's find out. The name of the box that we put ourselves in gives us a clue to how to approach someone new. That is NOT judgement, that is understanding based in knowledge of what God has said about Himself. It is true some USE that as an opportunity to judge, I agree, but spending time in the bible and knowing what God has said is used to discern a brother from a deceived individual, and even those that do not know God. God is not judging us by our doctrinal knowledge but we can use that to indicate a TRUE disciple from a nominal disciple or a false brother. Do you see what I mean, Polly? It IS NOT judgement, it is discernment and the two are miles apart. One is to know how to relate and the other is to put down. But they are not the same thing. Because my understanding of God and His justice is clear to me, please DO NOT sit in judgement of me, but rather discern for yourself how to relate. I believe there is a balance between God's love and His justice. Since He has said that He is the same yesterday, today, and forever, that leads me to an understanding of how His love and justice are balanced. He punishes as a good father must do. He is gathering a people for Himself and requires that the people He gathers, not only know Him, but love Him as well. "I will draw them unto myself" God says, but He will not force. People come to Him out of relationship, not sight. He is not looking for someone that sees Him and acknowledges Him. He is looking for those who have not seen Him and yet, can acknowledge Him. God says that He honors His promises and those that do not come to Him have been promised weeping and nashing of teeth, ETERNALLY. That is a promise of God and He is faithful to fulfill His promises though He does not wish that ANY should perish. Dan
Dan, I'm sensing a little anger in your post. You need not convince me of what mormons do or don't believe. I was raised one, married in the temple, and had my children baptized in that church. I left at the age of 35, after a mental break down in part due to my abusive marriage, and in part, due to high expectations of myself because of my belief system. As a person with bipolar disorder, it was impossible for me to maintain the same level of work that the other women did, and when depressions would hit, as they always do, this would feed into my self loathing. I felt less than them as a wife and mother, and as a daughter of God. After the breakdown, suicide attempt, divorce, professional therapy that my LDS father paid for, I slowly began to see the facade for what it really is. Two years later I met my present husband of 22 years, a devout christian who knew the Lord, and was so kind and patient with us I hardly knew how to act. He has always told friends that he felt very strongly that I already knew the Lord as my Savior, and had no bones about marrying me and taking on my two children. He slowly and patiently began helping me understand the concept of grace. Even though I had my name removed, and was no longer LDS, I could not understand grace for nearly 10 years. Christians simply do not understand the severe PTSD involved in cutting oneself off from that society. It has many safeguards that I've not found since. I haven't found women's groups as supportive. I've not seen church welfare systems that actually function like theirs. And isn't that biblical, that we care for one another during tough times? I have found it hard to comprehend why no one else actually puts it into practice. These things I miss, and I miss my family. But I cannot turn my back on my God, who created me out of love, and has commanded me to love all, even though that's a huge work in progress. All I can do for my son is love him the way Christ wants me to, and be encouraging when we have things at church that aren't controversial for him and his growing family. I think he might allow me at some point to take his children to church, simply because he supports their stance on social justice, and we are always working with neighboring schools doing good works. I think that might be my doorway in with him. As far as my daughter is concerned, that's more complicated, because she's more bipolar than me, and tends to intellectualize everything. I believe in a fair and understanding God who knows more about mental illness than we do, and isn't going to use the same yard stick on every person on the planet. She's my first born, my heart beat, my sweet sweet girl, and she does believe historically in the person called Jesus. Maybe her heart will be touched later on....
@Pollypinks@xanga - It really does sound like you have a great heart for the Lord, Polly, and if for some reason I sounded harsh, please forgive me. It isn't that I am judgemental or angry, it is just that my love for the Lord, even though I am imperfect, tends to consume me and I am really concerned for those that don't know Him. It is my responsibility among others to warn folks that the "bridge they are on has collapsed" and if I can, prevent them from driving over the edge. I think of the scripture where Jesus looked out over Jerusalem, knowing He was to be crucified and yet sorrowful because they did not understand. He said," He longed to gather them as a hen gathers her chicks, but they were not willing". And He wept over them. What compassion He has for the lost and that inspires me as well. I have been settling into a new church that is full of great believers and they are letting me teach one of the classes. I love teaching. I am not called to be a leader but I have been called to teach and the Lord has blessed me abundantly for it in the past 32 years. It isn't anger I feel for religion, but sorrow for the deception that religion brings. It is always said that God loves the sinner but hates the sin, which is true, but the problem comes at the end of life because the soul (the actual part of a human) perishes with the body. That is why the deceptive religions trouble me so much. False religion leads folks to condemnation by God and that is not necessary. Those that come to the Lord can be easily deceived with all the "garbage"doctrine out there. As a teacher, my heart tells me to turn as many back as I can to what God has said. It isn't anger that compels me but concern. Dan
Dan, Thanks so much for your post. I was beginning to feel like I'd ticked you off to the point of no return. Please keep in mind that witnessing for mormons is a different experience than it is for others. They do not respond to typical biblical discourse, and attempting to scare them into submission rarely works either. If anything, they are frightened by those who question them. If you've never lived a cult experience, there's nothing I can say to help you understand. But, they respond to pure love. Just being there to be-friend them, allowing your children to play with theirs, and always showing them that you care for them above and beyond trying to convert them. If they come from pioneer stock, the chances of them actually reading their own literature is close to nil. It's on faith, a belief in the prophet always leading them correctly, and a respect for anyone holding the priesthood. And they have in their pockets the proof of financial success, welfare success, and getting each other's backs when times are tough. Like I think I mentioned, it's a tough act to follow, and I really suffered greatly for the first 10 years I was out. Nobody understood me, nor cared to try. I fit in with no evangelical women. They wanted to pray over me all the time, but didn't have the time to be-friend me and get to know my trauma first hand. For those who have come up against LSD people and their doctrine they know as well as I that it rarely works to show biblical proof. They've been conditioned to believe the bible "As it is translated correctly", in other words, by their historians, and their scholars. I would encourage all here to readily embrace and be-friend those LDS contacts they have at work, school, or in the neighborhood, and show them you aren't the boogey man. They fear you. They don't trust you. They watch the political spectrum going on and it supports their position of distrust. While they normally vote conservatively, I think they put more effort into thinking about each candidate than most christians do, and my 88 yr. old LDS father, the darling of his ward, has always voted democratically, and never been questioned about it. So the thought of them leaving, and being questioned for ALL their beliefs, is too much to bear.
@Pollypinks@xanga - Hello again, Polly. I've been looking for an excellent video that I saw about a month ago for the recovering Jehovah's Witness. It was a room full of ex- witnesses discussing the fear and apprehension they felt leaving their cult. As you say, the fear can be overwhelming and the distrust that has been driven into them about the Church doesn't give them a direction to turn either. In a very real sense, they are brainwashed into believing what the Watchtower says IS the word of god. My brother-in-law and sister-in-law are Jehovah's Witnesses as he is an elder in the group. There is so much parallel in all of these cults, whether Mormon, JW, Adventist, and they are difficult to reach because of the fear instilled in them. My wife and I have been slowly trying to draw them out, but they are in deep. We have found that doctrine is not the place to work, but who Jesus Christ really is and are they truly depending on God or their Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. I don't envy your situation, Polly, and I know some of the heartache you feel for your son and daughter. I'm going to continue looking for that video because it explains the trap of the cults, even though it is JW video. I'll continue to pray for your family, that the Lord will bring peace to your heart, your son, and daughter, and that they will know the true Jesus Christ in their hearts. May God continue to bless you, Polly through His Son Dan
I studied with the Adventists for a short period of time and didn't find cult related feelings or works that they had to do. I actually had one friend who was baptized and welcomed as an Adventist while living with her boyfriend, and they continued to live together for 20 years before marrying, and known to her leaders. While I did find some of the writings of Ellen G. White a little suspicious, I didn't see near the stuff I was used to, and the only weird thing I saw was worshipping on Sat., which for me, would be a non-issue. They did have one practice that I liked, and that was the washing of feet. The women would go into one room, and the men into another, and they would wash each other's feet. My friend told me that if they had ill feelings towards any members, nothing humbled them more than washing the feet of those people. I do know they are listed in Walter Martin's "Kingdom Of The Cults", however.
@Pollypinks@xanga - One of the definitions of a "cult" is that they follow the teachings of one specific leader and tend to focus on his/her teachings as being the correct doctrine. I don't specifically know that SDA is listed as a cult, but by the definition, they use Ellen G. White's "Pearl of Great Price" as text for their doctrine. However, the Adventists have gone through a quasi split where some have realized the importance of the New Testament and living by GRACE alone but still remain Adventists. It is the GRACE PLUS NOTHING that is the important doctrine (salvation doctrine) and many will be found within religion that have that understanding but have not separated themselves from their parent religion. Read 1 Corintians 3:10-22 to get a feel for those "in Christ". The parable of the seed is another example where the seed in thorns and the seed on good soil are the Church, (Mat 13:118-23). It is not doctrine that saves, but relationship and many will have that relationship and let the cares of life choke it. Does that make sense, Polly? My sunday school class is praying for your situation and your kids salvation. Dan
Dan, The Pearl Of Great Price is part of mormon doctrine. I don't know if Ellen While named her stuff after it. If you don't want to argue doctrine, why are you constantly cramming scripture down my throat? Do you honestly believe I haven't read this? Here we go again. Romans 3:23-24 All have sinned and fall short of the glory of God, and are justified freely by his grace through the redemption that came by Christ Jesus. (Note: ALL are justified freely) Romans 5:18 Just as the result of one trespass was condemnation for all men, so also the result of one act of righteousness was justification that brings life to all men. Romans 8: 38-39 I am convinced that neither death nor life, neither angels nor demons, neither the present nor the future, nor any powers, neither height nor depth, nor anything in all of creation, will be able to separate us from the love of God that is in christ Jesus our Lord. Romans 11:32 God has bound all men over to disobedience so that he many have mercy on all men. 1 Cor. 15:22 For as in Adam all die, so in Christ all will be made alive. And I thank you for praying for my children. I'm not sure what you mean about my "situation."
@Pollypinks@xanga - Sorry for any confusion, Polly. I am trying to agree with you, not debate. The verses I used were to agree that once you know Jesus Christ, He is able to hold one in the hollow of His hand in spite of our failures. I'm looking for a point of understanding, not a battleground. I thought that we had reached that already. You don't need condemnation, you need acceptance. I see the deception that the "cults" bring as do you, and grieve for those caught in them, not condemn them. My wife and I have tried with the in-laws in JW for the 32 years we have been Christians and we are no closer now than then. We live next door to them and make inclusive provisions for them but they desire to exclude themselves from many things so as not to be seen as "worldly" in their kingdom hall. But we still have our Friday "retired" fling in the "big" town and visit the 3 other Christian sisters so there is still a connection.. I'll continue praying for that peace that surpasses all understanding for your family. Dan
Dan, I hear you about the JW's. My first mother in law is one, and at one family member's funeral, at a catholic church, she hid in the car with her face hidden by a scarf. They live in constant fear of having something or doing something wrong that might get them kicked out, like other religious material sent in the mail. Because once they get kicked out, it literally takes an act of God ( metaphorically speaking) to get back in. When they do their visiting, the elders don't care if they talk about the church or not. It's all about racking up hours to reach a certain level within the organization. I never lived in such a way in mormonism. Everyone there knew of my family's political beliefs and they didn't cross us over it. I was always verbal in my feelings about verbotin subjects including priesthood duties, and I never got called on it. I really think people need to feel free to discuss their feelings, without necessarily putting other people down. If we don't feel free to question, then what's the point in living? That's been my whole beef all along. Taking all these years to find some place where people are free to question differing interpretations, and yet, still pray for one another, and not judge one's christianity. It does no good to question a mormon's christianity, try to convince him he's not one, and pick apart scriptures to prove it. That method simply will not work.
@Pollypinks@xanga - Its kind of like the old saying, when you point one finger at the other person, there are always four fingers pointing back at you, right? Dan
I love the Savior. I know He is the Son of God. I know He died for my sins, and that He loves me. He is Lord of Lords and King of Kings, and I feel the greatest happiness as I work together with Him to help His brothers and sisters...
... And I'm a Mormon