Saturday, 27 August 2011
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Pascal's Wager: What it Tells Us About Ourselves
Imagine you are making your way into the grocery store. As you enter, an employee stops you and says, "Excuse me, there may be a bomb in the building." What would you do? Most likely, you wouldn't enter. I know I wouldn't. Although I don't know for certain if there's a bomb in the building, I wouldn't take the risk. I wouldn't risk my own life, or possibly the lives of my child/husband if they were with me on my trip. I think we can agree that you are indeed being very careless, at best, for entering the building knowing there's a 50/50 chance you could lose your life.Of course, things aren't that simple when it comes to God*. Blaise Pascal — French philosopher, scientist, mathematician and probability theorist (1623-1662) — argues that if we don’t know whether God exists then we should play it safe rather than risk being sorry.
Here's how it works.
If you do believe in God, and God does exist: you get heaven
If you do believe in God, and God does not exist: you get nothing (death is the end)
If you don't believe in God, and God does exist: you get hell
If you don't believe in God, and God does not exist: you get nothing
As you can see, it is in your best interest to believe in God. After all, hell would kinda suck, right? So why are there atheists? Or agnostics? How could it possibly benefit them to take such a risk with their eternal destinies?
Although it seems pretty simple and straight-forward, there are plenty of objections to this argument. What critics are objecting to is Pascal's subsequent advice to an unbeliever who, having concluded that the only rational way to wager is in favor of God's existence, points out, reasonably enough, that this by no means makes him a believer. A belief based solely on prudential reasoning is not true belief after all. A God who is all-knowing will clearly see through this facade. If this type of "faith" can get you into heaven, then heaven will, undoubtedly, be filled with selfish people-people who don't necessarily want to worship God, but who wanted to save their tails from his wrath for all eternity.
Another objection is that people just can't do this. Meaning, there are plenty of nonbelievers who are scared of hell, but not scared enough to follow the Lord. They can't just look at this wager and say, "Hey this is right...well, I'm a Christian now!" Think about it. Have you ever met a Christian whose testimony was "Well I became a Christian when I realized that I didn't want to go to hell and thought I'd play it safe." I've heard hundreds of testimonies of how people came to Christ, and that's one I've never personally heard. Clearly, this reasoning would cause us to raise our eyebrows and seriously question the sincerity of this person's faith.
So, you may be thinking, didn't Pascal understand that? Is he as shallow as to think that people can just "believe" on a whim? Actually, he's on to something.
I have asked the following question to at least ten people who were not Christians: "If Jesus came down right now and asked you to follow him for the rest of your life, would you?" I got nine "no"s for an answer and one "maybe". That should tell us right there that, it's not that we don't believe because we're just not convinced. We don't believe because we don't want to. It's not an intellectual decision, but a moral one.
This wager should tell us a lot about ourselves. Pascal is quoted as saying, "Men despise religion. They hate it and are afraid it may be true." The fact that it would do nothing but benefit us...for eternity....to follow God, yet we don't....that should tell us about the genuineness of our beliefs (or lack thereof). We would rather stay how we are, in our risky state, than submit to God. There are plenty of Scripture verses to show that we are actually not in a morally neutral state. We cannot just, on a whim, choose good or evil. We are, by nature, slaves to sin (Romans 6:6). We have a free will but not a good will. We will always choose not to obey God, because we would rather go our own way. We would rather serve ourselves than our Creator, for no other reason than because it pleases us more to do things our way. Had Adam and Eve's scenario been replaced with you and me, we would've chosen the same thing. The only thing that can free us from our bondage to slavery is Christ's sacrifice and the regenerating power of the Holy Spirit. The only reason anyone is a Christian, including myself, is because God has chosen to lift the veil that blinds our eyes and recreate our heart in such a way that it simply cannot say no to him. We love Christ. We can't get enough of him. The sin we once loved, we now abandon, and the Christ we once ignored, we now embrace.
Read this carefully: Christianity has never been about being convinced of God's existence, or merely about "believing" he exists. NEWSFLASH: Satan believes in God! "You believe that there is one God. Good! Even the demons believe that--and shudder" (James 2:19). But last time I checked, demons are not going to heaven. Just believing in God's existence isn't what gets people to heaven.
I don't look forward to heaven because there's going to be happiness, no more death, and peace. I ultimately look forward to heaven because I get Christ! I get to forever be with him and learn about him for the rest of eternity.
I think John Piper puts it best: ""Christ did not die to forgive sinners who go on treasuring anything above seeing and savoring God. And people who would be happy in heaven if Christ were not there, will not be there. The gospel is not a way to get people to heaven; it is a way to get people to God. It's a way of overcoming every obstacle to everlasting joy in God. If we don't want God above all things, we have not been converted by the gospel."
*For the sake of consistency and simplicity, we are assuming the existence of the Christian God for this argument
What are your thoughts on Pascal's Wager? Is it safer to assume there is a God? If it is, why are there people who don't believe?
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- From: apb102088@xanga
- Name: apb102088
- About Me: Been married to my best friend for 2 years and we have a beautiful son. We are trying to finish school so that we can go to the mission field in 5-10 years so we can share the Gospel to those who have never heard.
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Comments (65)
@danandbevsfarm@xanga - I have not chosen the path less resistant.
There are more Christians in the world than Atheist who walk the roads of Christianity and so the road I take is the road less taken and more difficult, why?
Because your life has already been set up with rules and rituals, your morality is not your own, it is borrowed from a book.
I must become a better person on my own, through my own morality, and I must face the idea that death is a permanent state, that there is no afterlife. I am face to face with truth and reality, while people in religion comfort themselves with a imaginary being because they cannot face reality.
@StatelessPilot - One thing I think was misunderstood was a statement that I neglected to follow up on.
pilot said; Further, I agree thatvpeople are inherently
evil, but disagree with your assertion that all non-Christians are bad
(evil) people.
I believe there is a SLIGHT misrepresentation of what I said. My comment was meant to say that ALL people are sinners; ALL PEOPLE, ALL HUMAN BEINGS. Whether we know Jesus Christ or not, ALL were condemned to die because of Adam's sin. The difference between those that accept Jesus Christ is thart there is now no condemnation for those that are in Christ Jesus.
Romans 8
Life Through the Spirit
1 Therefore, there is now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus,
2 because through Christ Jesus the law of the Spirit who gives life has set you
free from the law of sin and death.
So, in a sense, you are correct in saying that those who are non christians are still sinners, but in another sense those that are Christians are still sinners, yet they are now not condemned for it. Do you see the difference? Dan
Dan, Thank you for taking the time to respond with a well thought out post. The thing I find most effective in witnessing to non christians is simply love. A well needed hug, or kind words of encouragement during difficult times. When others sense we truly care about them, they do give thought to our faith.
@too_pretty_to_die@xanga - I've been thinking about what you said, TooPretty, and I very much owe you an apology. You are right in saying that I have been arrogant and ignorant of your situation. I DON'T know what you have gone through and at this point, I don't know where you are going. I can't apologize for the bible, but I sure owe you an apology for what I have said. Please forgive me!!! Dan
Great post! :D
I love your little cartoon, that's great.
I won't delve too much into the religious argument, but only say that i think you may have endorsed predestination in your explanation. You said that we have free will, but not a good will. If we have free will, it cannot be good or bad on it's own, but only by our choosing. If it's rigged, it's not free will. Additionally, you said that each believer only became so because God chose to lift the veil from their eyes. That would mean that a persons salvation is entirely chosen by God, meaning that no person's direction towards heaven or hell has anything to do with their own will. Which further means that God put some people on this earth to go to hell. Which, again, removes free will. It also seems pointless, and unloving, to assign some people life explicitly to eternally suffer. I don't know if you realized that was your argument or not, but yea.
Personally, i do believe in God. I do believe we have free will. But i also believe that most people just end up believing what they were taught growing up.
I find it disgusting and dishonest for someone to be a Christian (or an "anything," really) "just in case". That is totally disrespectful to the religion and to its god. These people say they are "Christian" (or whatever), but usually they do not practice any aspect of the faith. These people only say they're Christian to get a free ticket into heaven. Not only is this stupid, but if they are right, and God does exist, if he is as strict as Christians make him out to be, I highly doubt he'll let anyone who half-assed it into heaven. If he does let them in, then he would have to let us all in. At least the rest of us were honest enough not to lie to ourselves and our community, claiming to practice a religion that we do not.
Sorry to be so aggressive, but I find these people very, very irritating. If you're a Christian, or anything, "just in case" that religion is right, you are a fool and you are wasting your time. Stop lying to yourself, and grow a pair.
@Pollypinks@xanga - I completely agree. I'm new (only the last 1 1/2 years) to posting my thoughts on several blogs and am feeling my way around doing it. I find that many times it appears to be a waste of my time, but then again, I have firmed up my beliefs in so many ways by getting it out "on paper"! I am not a journaler so I take it out on all of you folks. Getting the gospel out to as many folks as I can is very important to me now that this world (I firmly believe) is coming to an end. I may be totally off base on my understanding of prophecy, but I don't believe so. I wish my words could hug those that are hurting, and feed those that are hungry, but all they have done is encourage (hopefully) those that need to know the Lord. Most will reject, but that doesn't stop my prayers for them. While I was in the hospital from the tractor, I talked with many folks about Jesus Christ, and in two months of daily telling, one came to know the Lord and one was encouraged by my witness. There was a missionary to China(I think) that was asked why, after 40 years of witness only a handful of people came to salvation. His response has been my themesong, "The Lord was teaching me the VALUE of each individual soul". I would go through the tractor rollover again if I knew one more person would be spared from hell. Dan
That's a fallacious argument - like Pilot pointed out earlier, if you believe in God and you're wrong, you've lost out on the ability to make your own choices all through life and missed out on a lot of things because "the Bible says so".
@BimmerPhile@xanga - I haven't missed out on one thing. I have done almost everything that I shouldn't have been doing until I was sick of it. I have done nothing but gain as a Christian. I am healthier, far wiser, no longer in debt, and still alive. At almost 70 years old, I have outlived most of my friends (keep checking obits to see if I'm in there), more financially stable than I would have been. The only thing I've missed is most of my hair. I wouldn't go back to those days. I was a thief, an adulterer, a liar, wild child, and you would call that living?
Nope, haven't missed a thing!!! Dan
@danandbevsfarm@xanga - Compared to the good Christian life of "Yes sir, no sir, anything you say sir" blind servitude, yes. Just because you made some bad choices doesn't mean that you weren't living - because you had the ABILITY to make choices, and that's something religion takes away from you.
Because it's idiotic. Not to mention disrespectful to the religion.
(I'm a nihilist btw.)
Sometimes, I think Revelife should be closed down because it causes so much unnecessary drama. As if religion weren't already a touchy subject outside of xanga. Every forum I've been to, they've closed down topics/subforums that cause controversy. I don't see why Revelife is any different. No "side" is going to be able to prove the existence or non-existence of God. And obviously, we can't have a civil conversation about it either, without people attacking one another. So why is this site up?
I disagree with this notion of us attempting to save at least one person from going to hell. That's fear mongering, and we don't find God punishing forever. Hell is a mistranslation of sheol, hades, tartarus, gehenna. In Greek manuscripts of the NT aion occurs 128 times-a long period that begins and ends. Sheol is the pit. Hades is the grave. Tartarus is the dark abyss. Christ spoke about gehenna, or, God's refining yet merciful judgment. The physical lake of fire will melt the elements. We need to be teaching others about unconditional love. John 10:16 I have other sheep that are not of this sheep pen. I must bring them also. They too wil listen to my voice, and there shall be one flock and one shepherd. John 12:32 When I am lifted up, I will draw all men to myself. Luke 3:6 All mankind will see God's salvation. Mark 11:17 My house shall be called a house of prayer for all nations. Romans 11:32 God has bound all men over to disobedience so that he may have mercy on all men. 1 Cor. 15:22 For as in Adam all die, so in Christ all will be make alive. Titus 2:11 For the grace of God that brings salvation has appeared to all men. Rev 21:25 On no day will it's (heaven's) gates be shut, for there will be no night there. I give but a few samples simply saying that we proclaim our God to be perfect, and if he is perfect, he is incapable of creating 3/4 of his beings to burn in hell. It just doesn't fit. I know you'll dig up a few scriptures to state that, but it simply doesn't fit with any sensible knowledge of him.
@Pollypinks@xanga - Hello Polly, this is not the place to argue doctrine before the world. As you say, this is the place to love your fellow human being just as Jesus did. He also spoke of truth so that man would understand his TRUE condition and why he desparately needs to know the love that God has for His creation.We speak many times here of the sinfulness and evilness of each human because man is in a state of complete moral failure because of what Adam (and Eve) did in Eden. This is FACT that can be ignored or altered that does NOT alter the fact. God, out of great love for His creation, sent His son, Jesus Christ, to restore us to the righteous, sinless place that we had before Adam's sin. The provision for restoration has been made, but only one condition needs to be met. That is to BELIEVE that Jesus Christ is that offering on our behalf and you WILL be spared. THAT IS THE ONLY CONDITION. " He who has the Son of God, HAS LIFE, he who does not have the Son, does not have life". THIS IS THE CRUCIAL DOCTRINE!! ALL other doctrine WILL NOT alter one's standing before God. We can haggle over hell til the cows come home and in the end, NOTHING will have been accomplished. My wife came to know the Lord because she was deathly afraid of ending up in hell for eternity. She has known the Lord for 32 years as I have, and knows that the doctrine that saves is the only critical doctrine. It's true that there are important things to know about God as written in the bible, but as 1 Cor 13:9-13 says, we only know in part, but at translation, we will know fully, even as we are fully known. God takes into account, our errors AND OUR INDIVIDUAL REBELLION AGAINST HIM (called sin) But for those that know Him, there is now no condemnation (Rom 8:1). Have I argued doctrine on this site, yes I have because of my concern for those that don't know Him. I have tried to show love for them by telling them of their true condition THROUGH GOD'S EYES, not in the world's eyes because this world is passing away (1 Cor 7:31). The evidence that is important is the evidence IN THE HEART that you know God. "More blessed is he who does not see and yet believes" (John 20:29). Whether hell is just for a moment or endures eternally, it is NOT where God would have ANY of us. But the choice, the free will choice, is left in our hands. We determine the ultimate direction of our lives. In tennis, when the ball is served to you, you have the choice to play by the established rules and return the serve, or catch the ball and throw it away or throw it back to the server. Only one way to play the game that counts, but the choice must be made when the ball comes to you. Dan
John 3:36New International Version (NIV)
36 Whoever believes in the Son has eternal life, but whoever rejects the Son will not see life, for God’s wrath remains on them.
Dan, Don't launch into a diatribe and expect me not to respond. "Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess that Jesus Christ is Lord." Now, do you know for a fact that this shall happen while all are on earth, in their physical bodies? That every person on the planet who never heard nor understood this will not say it in the after life? Can that be, that God is a fair God, and since scripture tells us every one will profess God, that in God's time, every one will? I'm not saying there will not be judgment, nor consequences for evil here on earth. I'm simply saying what the scripture says. Everyone will profess Jesus as Lord. We don't have to try to force people to do it and assume that our congregation is the only one on this earth that has it right.
@Pollypinks@xanga - As I have said, Poly, I don't find it necessaary to argue doctrine before the world, but I will leave you with this. Please read in Revelation about the Book of Life and whose names are written there (Revelation 21:27, Phil 4:3, Psalm 69:28, Revelation 17:8, Rev 20:12, Rev 3:5). THERE ARE NO DO-OVERS after this life. The Book of Life has ONLY the names of those who have acknowledged in their heart (soul) that Jesus Christ paid the price for our sin and has become Lord of their life. Read about what the second death is in Revelation and who will be there. (Revelation 20:11-15)
Revelation 20:15New International Version 1984 (NIV1984)15 If anyone’s name was not found written in the book of life, he was thrown into the lake of fire.
I will emphasize it again that THERE ARE NO DO-OVERS AFTER THIS LIFE! If one is not able to acknowledge God here, it is coersion to think that a just God will allow someone AFTER DEATH to acknowledge Him at the Great White Throne. Only an absolute fool would not change their mind at that point. Does that, in all honesty sound like God's justice? If He punished Sodom and Gamorrah, stoned false prophets, charged Adam for his sin, has reserved Hades for satan and his cohorts, was going to destroy Ninevah, and destroys the nations that come against Israel, wouldn't you think that God's justice would prevail against those who WILL NOT acknowledge Him?
And speaking of Ninevah, what was it that turned the tide for the Ninevites in Jonah's day? While they were ALIVE they acknowledged God and spared their destruction. They were later totally destroyed for turning back to what they were formerly but the Whole community at the time acknowledged God. This was a city that it took three days to walk from one end to the other. Every one!!
Jonah 3:6-10New International Version 1984 (NIV1984)6 When the
news reached the king of Nineveh, he rose from his throne, took off his
royal robes, covered himself with sackcloth and sat down in the dust. 7 Then he issued a proclamation in Nineveh:
“By the decree of the king and his nobles:
Do not let any man or beast, herd or flock, taste anything; do not let them eat or drink. 8
But let man and beast be covered with sackcloth. Let everyone call
urgently on God. Let them give up their evil ways and their violence. 9 Who knows? God may yet relent and with compassion turn from his fierce anger so that we will not perish.”
10
When God saw what they did and how they turned from their evil ways, he
had compassion and did not bring upon them the destruction he had
threatened.
@BimmerPhile@xanga - I am guessing, but I don't believe you have ever been in the military, by your comment. After 4 years learning the "yes, sirs, no sirs", I found them to be VERY practical in Viet Nam. It is true that some orders sacrificed lives, but by following orders, we worked as a disciplined unit and worked together ,rather than having fun wondering around the countryside with bullets whizzing around our head. We worked together under those orders and most stayed alive. True, some did not, but consider the world in non military situations. What is the death toll among drunk drivers, those that are forewarned about drinking and driving? And those that smoke and ultimately die of lung cancer (they have been warned as well). Were they following any orders or just out having fun and enjoying life? What you are telling me is that living my own morality that I direct myself was more FUN than following the Christian morality that leads to eternal life? Fifty years ago, while in the Navy in Charleston, South Carolina, I was walking on the side of the road in an open stretch of road, when a lady drunk driver came off the road and hit me in the rear end at about 70 miles/hour and through me about 30 feet away. BOY WAS THAT FUN!!! Also, one year before that, I was driving my sports car when a lady ran a stop sign and hit my car at the rear tire, flipping it over and sliding 100 feet or so upside down with my back on the ground. MAN, THAT WAS REALLY LIVING!!! I lost the skin on my back down to the ribs on that one and the rear- ender I completely tore off her fender and broke one little finger. Now I realize those things can happen to anyone and if I believed in luck, I would say "How unlucky could I be", right? These things happened while I was living the good life, according to you!! At that rate, my good life was only going to last maybe 30 years at the rate the good life was going!! As a Christian, I have been given direct proof that following the "yes sir, no sir" plan that God directs has brought me wealth (my first million 20 years ago), happiness, joy, peace, love, friends, etc. I really don't consider that a bad trade for the "good" life, would you? I have given away much more than i would have without supporting missionaries, the poor, church general fund, etc for the eternity of others. Will the new car, house, boat, refrigerator, bank account, last that long? Isn't it ALL a matter of perspective? I see beyond this life and have staked everything on it! Dan
@thequalityof_ourconvictions@xanga - I meant to reply sooner and forgot. I think the point you have made is very well taken. God said only one thing in the bible and man has distorted it in such a way that it "scratches the back" when you need it. If you do not want to believe in hell, there are religions that teach there is no hell. If you feel bad about who you are, there are religions that can affirm YOU and put the other guy down so YOU feel better. If you like the idea of eternal life, but do not want to put out any effort, there are religions that will tell you EVERYBODY goes to heaven. But all these are counter to what God says. He is the one who created the "game" and He is the one that sets the rules to play the "game". Adam "blew it" for all of us so God, loving us the way He does, fixed the problem of rebellion through His own Son. Now we have a clean start. We ALL are rebellion-free IF we accept the provision that He made for us. We are free to play the "game" any way we choose, but there is ALWAYS a way to win a game or loose a game. Play by His rules and you win. Make up your own rules and you loose EVERY TIME.Religion says, "I don't like your rules, God" so I'm going to do it MY way". Religions are good at doing that, but the end will never be what is expected.
I respect your honesty more than those in religion simply because, as you say, you are honest about it. Religion is not honest. It tries to tell the creator how he SHOULD play His game and that is a loosing proposition. Thanks for your response. Dan
@thequalityof_ourconvictions@xanga - Yeah that was one of the biggest "critiques" of the argument. Just to clarify, Pascal was just showing how we're really not looking for intellectual evidence of Christianity, because we choose the risky path, but yes, in reality, anyone who believes in God "just in case" is probably not an actual believer, because salvation doesn't work that way.
@jaydedheart@xanga - Unfortunately I can't take credit for the cartoon, lol. Revelife chose that. But, not to open a can of worms, I do believe the Bible teaches predestination. But, most people who I've talked to who are opposed to predestination don't really understand it. In a nutshell, it's not that God has chosen some for heaven and some for hell. Jesus teaches that we are all blind and we will all perish on our own. 100% of people WILL reject God. But God chooses to have mercy on some. See Romans 8-10. It'll blow your mind (in a good way).
@Pollypinks@xanga - Just curious, what do you think of Matthew 25:31-46 (especially verse 46: " “Then they will go away to eternal punishment, but the righteous to eternal life.”)? Or when he says there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth? Just want to make sure I'm understanding you. Do you believe hell is temporary or non-existent?
There's little point in anyone trying to have an intelligent discussion with a fundamentalist bound in fear. There's no point in having discussion, though much can come from it, about the bible's inerrancy. Even though it's been translated by man hundreds of times. Even though the tenor of the texts changed radically when Rome re-wrote them. I'm simply saying we can be christians and have choices about certain things we believe, and they don't have to be deal breakers. I think you've quoted the NIV, which is fine with me, but many wouldn't accept it. That's just one example. Reading Revelation can be interesting and helpful to anyone who reads it for its overall message. We don't have to become overtly worked up in the details in order to respect it's message.
@Pollypinks@xanga - Then apparently we are at a standstill. I do not follow any of the Millerite offshoot doctrine, whether it is Jehovah's Witness, or SDA, especially in regards to the afterlife. An allegorical view of Revelation, where this means that and that means this is not proper exegesis of the text. You may personally believe that there is no hell or hell will not last, but what does that have to do with the sovereignty and justice of God. Weeping and nashing of teeth throughout the bible is very clear to me. That isn't fear-mongering, that is taking literal what God has said about the state of eternity. Is it necessary for Ellen G. White, Judge Rutherford, or WTB&TS, to interpret God's word for you? A literal understanding of what God has said is as clear as it gets. Anything else muddies the waters. I'm not condemning, but I am seeking the truth and firmly believe I have found it in a literal translation. That doesn't mean specifically the NIV, but I prefer preaching and teaching from a bible that holds ,at least, closely to the original texts and yet speaks in such a way that all congregants can understand in plain english. I have used most bibles but find the NIV to be the more practical text. Is it the New World Translation that you use, Polly?
Reading Matthew's text alone is quite clear. We will be judged on the kind of treatment given to the Jewish people ( "these brothers of mine"), although we know judgment is not based on works, rather grace through faith in Christ Jesus. Just following through with John 3:14-15 makes it appear that we will be judged according to our belief in Christ. You are asking about vs 46, specifically, and all I can tell you is that I have a personal belief, including prayer and study, that tells me there is more evidence in biblical texts to support eternal life for all. I am not saying some will not go away to some kind of punishment phase. This I know not. I'm just saying that there is too much evidence that is always ignored, and never preached on, that contains universal beliefs, and I think it is ignored because it is not popular, and it would cost people jobs. I believe that God is perfect, omnipresent, incapable of hate, and that because he is perfect, he will make a way for all to return to him. Not easily, obviously, for there is so much evil in the world we cannot think on it for long. I believe in Christ as my Lord and Savior. I believe I am loved and accepted by him through grace, and not because of works. That's where I'm the same as you. Then I choose to read the scriptures that most choose to pretend don't exist, or have meaning. That's the only difference between us.